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Old 28-08-2017, 12:12 AM
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Re: Help ! Need Advice...condom slip

Quote:
Originally Posted by DoctorTan View Post
0.004% is 1 in 25,000. In a Dr's lifetime, if he sees 25,000 patients in the same situation and tells all of them they do not need PEP, statistics bear the fact that 1 patient will come back to sue him for giving wrong advice.

Hi Dr Tan,

I would like to say your post is enlightening, but I would like to add my opinion and request that you correct me if I'm wrong.

The percentage 0.004% refers to a randomly selected member of the general population. A person who visits a clinic specifically to be tested or to seek STI-related advice is hardly a representative member of the general population.

To put it in another way, shouldn't we be considering posterior probability, that is, recognizing the risk to be higher than 0.004%, conditioned on the fact that he habitually engages in high risk activity.